The hottest supply side and environmental protecti

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The dual impact of supply side and environmental protection will curb the excessive growth of aluminum production capacity

at present, the clean-up of illegal production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is coming to an end. As of early September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has decreased to 36.13 million tons. In the next stage, the production restriction in the heating season will continue to promote the contraction of electrolytic aluminum operation capacity. Last week, Henan Province issued a draft for on-site comments on the heating season, proposing that the scope of environmental protection production restriction should be extended to enterprises across the province, indicating that environmental protection inspection will continue to be strictly implemented. The Ministry of environmental protection recently said that more than 30% of the production of electrolytic aluminum in the heating season is aimed at legal production capacity. According to this calculation, there will be 2.77 million tons of limited capacity, and the operating capacity will drop to less than 34million tons by the end of the year. Therefore, environmental protection and production restriction in the later stage will continue to benefit aluminum prices

although the output of primary aluminum continued to decline in August, there was still no inflection point in social inventory. On the one hand, it is the substitution of scrap aluminum for primary aluminum under high aluminum prices. On the other hand, it also takes some time for enterprises to reduce production and inventory. With the arrival of the "golden nine and silver ten" in the traditional consumption peak season, the inventory inflection point may appear after October

in addition, recent environmental protection has a significant impact on the price of aluminum raw materials. Affected by environmental protection supervision, the supply of bauxite is limited, such as the maintenance or shutdown of some alumina enterprises in Shanxi Province. We successfully found that one kind of reaction can be successful under the pressure of greenhouse, while the aluminum plant has improved its acceptance of alumina price under high profits, and the active replenishment of inventory has increased, making the alumina price increase by more than 30% in the near future. Since this year, microcomputer controlled can completely solve these problems. The capacity of prebaked anode is limited, and the supply continues to be tight. The price of its raw material low sulfur petroleum coke was significantly used for high precision in July; The latter rose cheaply, which continued to support the high operation of anode prices

in the heating season, limited production of alumina and prebaked anode affect the production capacity higher than electrolytic aluminum. 2+26+3 urban alumina production capacity is 38.95 million tons, and the production limit is 30%, affecting the production capacity of 9 million tons; The operating capacity of anode carbon is 8.2 million tons, which affects the capacity of 4.1 million tons based on 50% of the production limit. The range of raw material production limit is greater than 2.77 million tons of raw materials required for electrolytic aluminum production limit of 30%. The contraction of upstream supply will continue to raise costs and support aluminum prices

at the same time, the high coal price also increases the power cost of aluminum enterprises (also known as motors), and the subsequent self owned power plant fund and tax collection will further raise the power cost of aluminum enterprises. At present, the production cost per ton of aluminum has risen to 14700 yuan. In the face of the upcoming heating season, environmental protection will continue to be strict. Supported by the expected decline in supply and rising costs, the price of aluminum fluctuates strongly. It is expected that the fluctuation range of aluminum price will be 16000-18000 yuan/ton

under the dual influence of supply side and environmental protection in 2017, the excessive growth of aluminum production capacity will be curbed in 2018. In the future, the new capacity will more reasonably match the growth of demand. It is expected that the supply and demand of aluminum market will basically maintain a balance in 2018

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